• Arvis
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Topic: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

Now that the draws are out, what do you guys think are some interesting first-rounders or possible later round clashes?

I am DEVASTATED that Mardy Fish and Gilles Muller drew each other in the first round!  Two of my favorite guys!  No matter, Muller hasn't been playing well over the last few weeks and probably would have crashed out to just about anybody, but still.  I'll definitely be interested in seeing this match, though, if possible.

Dolgopolov vs. Tomic in Round 3 should be highly entertaining!

On the women's side, I really think Zheng Jie has the potential to go deep, except she's in Kvitova's quarter.  Kvitova has the kind of game that Zheng really just isn't built to beat.  I think Zheng is going to shock a lot of people when she upsets Marion Bartoli in Round 3.  You heard it here first.

Also, look for little-known Mandy Minella to give Sharapova all she can handle in round 2!  Possibility for biggest early-round upset here.

-Arvis

  • Tono
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

You have studied the draw somewhat eh Arvis! wink

I wouldn't be too confident about Tomic getting to Round 3 just yet though, he has a mighty tough 1st up match against Verdasco, that looks to be the best match of the 1st round actually...worthy of a 3rd or 4th round match IMO.
Troicki v Ferrero could be another goodie as will Murray v Harrison, I expect Andy will get through but will be given a few headaches by the rising youngster.
Roddick v Haase is another good potential match up, Fish & Muller as you say could be interesting, Kohli v Monaco should be close and Melzer v Karlovic.
Look for Benoit Paire to give Stan Wawrinka a good battle....I was most impressed with his performance at the Heineken Open in Auckland this week, not sure if he can keep his level up for 5 sets though just yet.
Baghdatis v Becker will be another tough battle and I can see the possibility of Almagro going out in the 1st round to Kubot, Nico needs to be on his game to get through in that one.

As for the women's....hold on I'll go and get my dartboard lol
I can see the potential for numerous upsets in the women's draw this year, so many players coming off injuries and lack of matchplay etc etc has made it tough to have any real confidence to predict a definite winner.
I reckon there are between 6-8 women who could take out the title this year and even then there is no certainty it will be one of that group.
Little Zheng was impressive in Auckland and she could have a good AO again, I know you will be smiling if she does anyway smile
One of the women we least suspect will probably have a deep run though, always seem to get at least one in Melbourne that gets on a roll....who will it be this year I wonder???

  • Registered: Jan. 14, 2011
  • Posts: 185

Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

Berdych has a good draw to get through third round. Not a bad draw for him through the 4th round. Would like to see him play Nadal since I think he has a wonderful chance here to upset him. He is capable of playing good tennis in Australia.

I like the Nalbandian vs Nieminen first round. Love both those guys.

Federer is definitely hoping Melzer upends Dr Ivo

Longshot Possible surprise: Mannarino v Del Potro. Mannarino is by far most comfortable on hard courts and has won 9 challengers all on the hard courts. This is a big opportunity for him. But the most likely result is a loss possibly 4 sets if Delpo is off his game.

Tomic v Verdasco: Bad draw for both. I'm taking the spaniard here even though the consensus vote I have seen is going to Tomic.

Murray will handle Harrison. I don't even find the match interesting.

Troicki v Ferrero is interesting. If Troicki gets in the habit of losing depth in his shots like I have seen him do, he will lose to the big hitting spaniard.

Chance for good run: Kei Nishikori. Good draw for him.

Another sucky first round: gulbis vs llodra. I like these guys.

Bad Draw: Gasquet for sure.

  • From: USA
  • Registered: Nov. 10, 2011
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

Hello, I realize I'm quite a newbie here but I thought I might pitch in as well, I love checking out the draws.

Ferrer doesn't strike a lot of reliability in me so a potential 4th round Ferrer/Tipsarevic looks really interesting to me. As does a potential 4th round match between Fish and DelPo, I like both of them but I think Delpo can come out on top.

I didn't realize until recently Youzhny was unseeded, but I like him a lot and I think he could cause some trouble for Tipsarevic, even though Youzhny only made it to the third round last year.

For some reason I also see Berdych as prone to early mistakes, so for my picks I'm taking Almagro over him. Though Almagro could very well be taken down by Wawrinka in the 3rd round.

This promises to be an exciting Aussie Open, can't wait!

  • Aiur
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

Welcome, Mhh. Always nice to see a new face on the forums.

As for the draw, Novak definitely has the hardest draw of The Big Four. Rafa has the easiest I would say. Matchups/possible matchups I'm looking forward to are:

Raonic vs Roddick (3rd round)
Murray vs Monfils (4th round)
Tomic vs Verdasco (1st round)
Dimitrov vs Almagro (2nd round)
Almagro/Dimitrov vs Wawrinka (4th round)

  • Registered: May. 16, 2011
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

Thanks for the great insights as I am just starting work on all of my numerous teams and draws.  smile

  • Tono
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

Mhh86 wrote:

Hello, I realize I'm quite a newbie here but I thought I might pitch in as well, I love checking out the draws.

Ferrer doesn't strike a lot of reliability in me so a potential 4th round Ferrer/Tipsarevic looks really interesting to me. As does a potential 4th round match between Fish and DelPo, I like both of them but I think Delpo can come out on top.

Welcome Mhh smile
Always good to read different people's opinions, remember if you reach 50 posts on GSFT you will be invited to join the much sought after Yoda Cup! smile
I do have one question for you though, why do you think Ferrer is not that reliable??

Last edited by Tono (Jan. 14, 2012 4:20pm)

  • From: USA
  • Registered: Nov. 10, 2011
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

Tono wrote:
Mhh86 wrote:

Hello, I realize I'm quite a newbie here but I thought I might pitch in as well, I love checking out the draws.

Ferrer doesn't strike a lot of reliability in me so a potential 4th round Ferrer/Tipsarevic looks really interesting to me. As does a potential 4th round match between Fish and DelPo, I like both of them but I think Delpo can come out on top.

Welcome Mhh smile
Always good to read different people's opinions, remember if you reach 50 posts on GSFT you will be invited to join the much sought after Yoda Cup! smile
I do have one question for you though, why do you think Ferrer is not that reliable??

Thanks for the warm welcome smile

I should actually probably take back those words seeing how well Ferrer just did in the Heineken Open. I don't really believe my opinion is backed by any numbers or stats, but I feel Ferrer sort of snuck up to the #5 spot and I've never been his biggest fan. I very well may be making a mistake seeing as how he got to the semis of the Aussie last year, we'll see how it plays out!

  • Tono
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

Good Answer Mhh!! wink
It's ok though all of us have our favourite players and players that don't quite "do it" for us.

He is a very under-rated player IMO, his fighting qualities and mental toughness are his greatest asset, he has improved his serve too so that is helping his game lately, what I admire about him also is that he is not a one trick pony when it comes to court surface, he actually has a very consistent record on most surfaces including grass and indoor, he has won a title on every surface except carpet which I assume would be far too quick for him....he has reached the 4th Round or better in his last 6 GS events too so he definitely deserves that spot at No.5. smile
His reaction after winning the Heineken Open in Auckland yesterday was "awesome" to see, it obviously meant so much to him to win that title for a 3rd time, nobody can tell me that the Top 10 guys don't care about the 250 tourneys after witnessing his reaction to winning in Auckland....he is a class act and I for one hope he has a memorable Australian Open in the next two weeks! big_smile (Can't see him winning it though)
I sound like the cheerleader of the David Ferrer fan club huh lol .....he IS one of my favourites though along with Fed and Tsonga! smile

  • Registered: Jan. 14, 2011
  • Posts: 185

Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

After watching Ferrer live at a 2011 davis cup match, I seriously realized just how great he really is. He may not have the firepower to beat the top of the top, but he is definitely good enough on any given day to take advantage of any opportunities you give him. He is a great pick to make the quarters here considering that Tipsy has a much tougher draw.

  • Registered: Jan. 3, 2011
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

I would love to see Federer play Nadal in the Semis and then the winner play Novak, but you never know what may happen.  Rafa did not do well at the ATP World Championships back in November 2011, so I am not sure what to expect from him.

  • Registered: May. 16, 2011
  • Posts: 212

Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

I agree 100% with you AceofPace. smile And I would add that The Big 4 will most likely make the Semi's, which could produce some classic tennis.  However, Federer's back and Nadal's shoulder are worriesome but Nole looks healthy and confident, a lethal combination for him.

  • Aiur
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

Wow, Davydenko just killed my team. Such a shame to see how far he's fallen in the last couple of years.

Last edited by Aiur (Jan. 15, 2012 10:54pm)

  • Tono
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

The Russian mafia at work again perhaps Aiur!! wink lol
You needn't worry too much though....quite a few of us just lost Flavia Pennetta in the first round too hmm

  • Registered: Jan. 14, 2010
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

i bet most of you didn't lose both like me!

  • Tono
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

Ouch now that does hurt Zygote!! sad
You don't have Tomic too by any chance??

  • Registered: Jan. 14, 2011
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

With no offense to any of the Aussies on this forum, I really do want to bludgeon Tomic's face in a bit. Such a classless player, but I will concede he played decent and acted well on court.

  • Registered: Jan. 14, 2010
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

No, I don't have Tomic...Hopefully those will be my only two first round losses and I'll have to get creative when it comes to picking underdogs starting in the 4th round.

  • Tono
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

Tomic won luckily anyway so it would have been ok if you did have him Zygote! wink
No need to panic just yet mate but if you happen to lose another one in the 1st Round then you will have to get very creative and possibly "very lucky" indeed!

  • Registered: Jan. 14, 2011
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

Looking like I'm going to lose Ljubicic in the first round too. Looks like creativity will be the only way to survive.

  • Dragan
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

I have to disagree about Tomic,Scoty and Tono.
He is not one of my favourites,but I was pleasantly surprised how god he was playing in the last three sets yesterday,especialy fourth and fift.
There was no luck there at all,IMO.He was much better then Verdasco and should close the match earlier by converting one of many break points that he had in the fift set.
There is no doubt with me that he is a great talent and that he will be a top player.

Last edited by Dragan (Jan. 16, 2012 8:24am)

  • Registered: Jan. 3, 2011
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

No one has said anything about Jsonga.  I think if he is on his game he could potentially make the finals, maybe even win.  When is the last time one of the big 4 did not snag the title?  Obviously I will be pulling for Fed, but Jsonga has stepped it up in my opinion after last year.

  • Arvis
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Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

I just found out that Tsonga is a super-popular pick for this tournament, but I actually avoided him.  I know I will probably come to regret it, but I just feel like Tsonga is vulnerable to the upset.  At ANY moment, he could go completely AWOL.  I was watching when he lost from 2 sets to love up on Wawa at the French last year.  So I went with the upset and have Nishikori beating him in the Rd of 16.  Probably a dumb pick, but a) The Australian Open is the best time be creative and go for upsets, and b) Nishikori is one of my favorite players, so even if he loses I can feel good about picking him. smile

-Arvis

  • Registered: Jan. 14, 2011
  • Posts: 185

Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

Right now I just can't consider Tomic more than an above average talent. He is not a likable guy either so his fan base will be fairly confined to his home country early on.

I think Nishikori is an decent pick. On the right day he has just as much chance as anybody to get to the 3rd or 4th round.

Last edited by the_lost_scot (Jan. 16, 2012 12:43pm)

  • Registered: Jan. 13, 2012
  • Posts: 25

Re: Australian Open 2012 Draw Analysis!

This board is a new experience for me.  I just wanted to shout about Bernard's defeat of Verdasco.  I thought Bernard was on his way out, but I forgot Fernando has a way of searching for ways to lose.  Nice first round for Bernard and a good test to boot- a five setter.