Here's my bold prediction. No Americans in the top 10 at year's end 2012.
Lest you think that is not a bold prediction, consider this. Since the point system began in 1979 here are how many Americans have been in the year end top 10 for each year:
7 - 79
6 - 80, 89
5 - 81
4 - 82, 83, 92, 94, 95
3 - 84, 87, 88, 90. 91. 93, 96, 99
2 - 85, 97, 98, 00, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06, 08
1 - 86, 07, 09, 10, 11
Let's recap that:
79: 7 out of 10 the first year.
'80's: 37 top 10 players, 3 years with 5 or more, 8 years with 3 or more of top 10
'90's: 31, 0 years with 5 or more, 8 years with 3 or more, 0 years fewer than 2 of top 10
'00's: 18, 0 years with 3 or more, 8 years with 2 of top 10
10, 11: only 1 each year, first Roddick, now Fish
Please note that 4 of the only 5 times there was only one American in the top 10 have occurred within the past 5 years, including the last 3 years in a row. Those players were Roddick and Fish. Roddick is clearly declining with age. Fish is suffering from injuries that were predictable, given his greatly increased training and playing, combined with his age. Unless Fish's health improves and then holds up next year, there will absolutely be no American in the top 10.
While the downward trend is obvious, the fact is there has never been a year without an American in the top 10!!! So I'd say my prediction is as bold as it gets.
Last edited by Don (Nov. 10, 2011 3:19pm)