Re: Can Rafa Defend His US Open Title??

I agree with most of that; it's extremely insightful.  I certainly don't think Rafa is fragile mentally, but I agree Rafa will make the semis and meet Murray.  I have no idea who will win.  All depends on what sort of shape Rafa shows up in IMO.  If he's 100%, he wins.  If he's struggling, he loses.

Realistically, the only hope for an actual winner outside the big 4 would be either Berdych or Fish or Delpo.  I don't like Soderling that much on fast hard courts myself.  Ferrer could go deep but I don't see him winning.  I guess Gulbis could catch fire for that matter! 

I don't really agree with the part about Nole/Murray.  If Nole's shoulder is still giving him trouble, he won't make the final.  If the shoulder is fine, Murray is toast in a final against Nole....or so I think anyway.

Last edited by Don (Aug. 26, 2011 4:12pm)

Re: Can Rafa Defend His US Open Title??

Yeah I know you are really a Ferrer man CC...just teasing ya...it was actually more aimed at the newbies in the room who were spouting on about Murray too wink
Now that I have seen the draw in detail I feel Rafa could actually have a good tournament and return to form...will it be his best form??? who knows..it will probably need to be though if he wants to win this thing!!
I agree it would be nice to see someone new win a GS...maybe for the 1st time..some fairytale story perhaps BUT ...I think it is going to be the same trio as always we will be talking about at the business end of the tournament...and maybe a few "Murray" cheerleaders too smile
I have always said that Andy Murray SHOULD win a Slam one day but having had 3 opportunities and missed out HAS to play on your mind surely..having said all that he is definitely in with a chance for sure. smile

Re: Can Rafa Defend His US Open Title??

Gulbis has issues with his commitment to the game. However, I like his new coaching move going with Guillermo Canas. I believe that has been instrumental in his recent success.

I am not going to be quick to judge this shoulder injury of Djokovic. I expect him to be fully prepared and rested for the US Open. It is his to lose. If there is one doubt I do have about him, it is his mental state going into the tournament. It isn't a confidence issue for him, it is just whether his mental stamina has anything left in the tank after playing so many big matches. If he runs into Federer in the Semis, we could possibly see a similar match as we did at RG. But at the end of the day, he is the favorite without question and if he plays his A game then he will be in the Finals.

I do not know what to necessarily read out of Nadal as of late, but I do think that Djokovic has gotten into his head somewhat. I am not a believer that people can just shake off consecutive losses to the same player. If they meet in the final, I would expect Nadal to attempt to flatten out his shots some which could either lead to a breakthrough or a beat down. But I don't see Nadal in the final, maybe he can surprise me.

Murray is probably toast if he comes up against Djokovic in the final. But out of everyone in the field, I think he is the one person that could beat Djokovic on his A game. There's something brewing in that matchup since their epic clay court match this year. And with Djokovic being a quitter in their last meeting, you can definitely expect Murray to not like that one bit.

Re: Can Rafa Defend His US Open Title??

Djokovic's serve was about 20 mph slower than normal due to the shoulder injury.  If that happens again, his serve is too vulnerable and it turns into a break fest.  Lots of people can beat him then.

Last edited by Don (Aug. 26, 2011 7:56pm)

Re: Can Rafa Defend His US Open Title??

I wouldn't call myself a "Murray disciple" either, but I would like to see him breakthrough since he is certainly capable of doing it. It would make a great story, but to be honest, I would be happy if any of the top 4 won the title. If Djokovic wins, it would extend and cement his historic run as one of the most dominating in the history of the sport (IMO more impressive than McEnroe's run in 1984 because of how physical the sport is at the moment). If Nadal wins, he rebalances the scale of power and makes his rivalry with Djokovic more intriguing. If Federer wins, he once again shows his quality and proves to the world that even at his age he can still dominate the field, adding to his legacy. If Murray wins, the trio may become a quadri, and then who knows what will happen?!

I actually think it would be pretty darn cool if Tsonga or Fish could catch some breaks, make a great run, and win the title. I don't like Berdych's game very much, and I don't think Ferrer has slam-winning talent (sorry CC, I do admire Ferrer's game though and his physical stamina and mental fortitude) or that Del Po is back to his slam-winning form (though he may make a strong run).

Rafa has been struggling lately (his match with Verdasco in Cincy and then losing to Fish demonstrate this), but he may benefit from the easiest quadrant of the draw. My beloved Murray I think is in the toughest, most loaded quadrant; every match he faces may be a tough test. Djokovic's shoulder will be fine, and he should make it through with relatively minor resistance (at least until the quarters). Federer should be able to cruise also with relatively minor resistance (though he may face Tsonga yet again in the quarters). But you never know what is going to happen!

Re: Can Rafa Defend His US Open Title??

Some insightful comments there Camdawg smile
It will in all probability be one of the top 4 that win it all again...but you are right in that... it would be "cool" to see someone different make a BIG run and win the title!! smile
I wonder if Hurricane Irene is going to have an impact on the first few days of the tournament??
If it happens to be really windy then anything could indeed happen and upsets galore could eventuate....and I agree with you that if "Nole" wins his 3rd Slam of the year then his year will have to go down as the greatest in the history of the sport..no question about it!!

Re: Can Rafa Defend His US Open Title??

Instead of the people in the the top four the people i think may have a chance is Soderling, Ryan Harrison (Harrison won both doubles and singles in Hawaii), Ferrer, Del Potro, and Verdasco. As you guys said that Rafas mental weakness because of loses. If this keeps on happening these guys will pass Nadal when played. If Rafa keeps on playing well then he is sure to win and conquer the mental weakness.



VAMOS RAFA! smile

Re: Can Rafa Defend His US Open Title??

Sorry M3 I can't agree with you there...I don't think any out of Soderling, Harrison, Ferrer, Del Potro or Verdasco will win the Championship...Rafa on the other hand...well I would never rule him out!! smile

Re: Can Rafa Defend His US Open Title??

Soderling is worst on fast hard courts outdoors.  No chance there. 
Harrison?  Are you kidding?  Give the kid some time. 
Ferrer, I wish, but no way. 
Verdasco as champion actually made me laugh out loud.  Nicely done! 
Cam is right about Delpo.  Not yet.  Could make a nice run.  The Simon match should be revealing.
Rafa to the semis at minimum.

Re: Can Rafa Defend His US Open Title??

M3awesome10s wrote:

Instead of the people in the the top four the people i think may have a chance is Soderling, Ryan Harrison (Harrison won both doubles and singles in Hawaii), Ferrer, Del Potro, and Verdasco. As you guys said that Rafas mental weakness because of loses. If this keeps on happening these guys will pass Nadal when played. If Rafa keeps on playing well then he is sure to win and conquer the mental weakness.



VAMOS RAFA! smile

Do I think any of these guys will win? (not including Rafa)

Errr... no. No I don't.

For Harrison to win, he'll have to possibly defeat:
Cilic
Tomic
Federer
Stepanek/Troicki
Fish/Tsonga/Anderson/Verdasco
Djokovic
Nadal/Murray

Yeah... no. Not going to happen anytime soon.

Last edited by CrossCourt (Aug. 28, 2011 5:09am)