• Arvis
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Topic: First Round matches to watch?

Isner v. Mahut: DUH!  Isner should win easily, though.

Stepanek v. Verdasco: Both of these guys have played well in their grass court warm-up events.  This one should go the distance.  A coin-flip says Verdasco will win it.

Karlovic v. Tipsarevic:  Janko has been on fire at his grass court events, but Karlovic and his impossible serve is trouble for even the best players on grass.  This match will be won or lost completely on whether or not Dr. Ivo's first serve is clicking or not.  A coin-flip says Karlovic wins.

Dolgopolov v. Fernando Gonzalez: "New Hotness" against "Old & Busted," Gonzalez could make a statement here if he's back to full fitness.  Otherwise Dolgo should have more than enough game against this aging former Grand Slam runner-up.  A coin-flip picks Dolgopolov.

Soderling v. Petzschner:  A man who once won a huge upset against Nadal in the 4th round of Roland Garros against a man who really SHOULD have won a huge upset against Nadal in the 3rd round of Wimbledon.  Petzschner is a SERIOUS grass court player with a VERY underrated feel at the net.  Ask Nadal how well this guy volleys.  Not only that, but Petzschner just made it to the finals of the Halle warmup tourney.  However, Soderling is #5 for a reason and no grass court slouch himself.  His serve, when on, can be impossible to break on grass.  Expect this one to go 5 sets as well.  A coin-flip picks Soderling.

Nishikori v. Hewitt: (See Dolgopolov v. Fernando Gonzalez)  Coin-flip says Hewitt gets his heart broken by the Japanese Prince of Tennis.

Ward v. Llodra: The British Queen's Club Surprise against one of the last true S&Vers left in the game.  Llodra has the skills to win, but Ward has youth, hope, energy, potential, belief... all those things that make people win in movies and tv shows.  This should be an entertaining one no matter the outcome.  Will the young Brit wow his home crowd?  Or will he be given a lesson in real grass court tennis by the wily veteran?  A coin-flip picks Ward for the big upset.

Blake v. Baghdatis: Two aging heavy-hitters of the game, both hoping for a resurgence on these hallowed grounds.  At the least we should see some spectacular shotmaking here.  I'm not flipping a coin, I'm picking James.

  • Don
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Re: First Round matches to watch?

Nicely picked and analyzed. 

I'm not sure that Isner will beat Mahut easily, though.  John has a poor match record so far this year.  Still, I can't pick against him in that one. 

Verdasco is not what he was two years ago, but I'll take him.  I like Janko over Dr. Ivo slightly.  I have no idea what Gonzo will or won't have, so I'm clueless there, but I'll take "Dog" anyway. 

I definitely like Soderling in 3 or possibly 4 over Petzschner, though you're absolutely right to say that Petzschner's a dangerous player for anyone on grass.  Still, he did retire with back pain and spasm in the Halle final, so it's questionable whether he's at 100%, I think.

I like Hewitt over Nishikori in straight sets or 4 sets at most, and Llodra over Ward in a long, close match.  And I definitely like Baghdatis over Blake -- very easily in straight sets.

It'll be interesting to see how we do, since the only ones we have the same are Verdasco, Dolgopolov (a total guess on my part), Isner and Soderling -- but you think Isner will win easily (which I doubt) and I think Soderling will win easily (which you doubt).  That's why they play the matches, eh?

Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 17, 2011 1:35pm)

  • Arvis
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Re: First Round matches to watch?

LOL, too true.  Let me know if there are any interesting matchups I missed.  Since many slots in my draw say "Qualifier," there might be some good ones I don't know about.

Re: Isner, remember how effective his serve was on clay just a few weeks ago?  Picture it on grass.  I don't see Mahut being able to withstand it.*

Re: Petzschner beat Raonic and Berdych on the way to the Halle finals and played an on-fire Kohlschreiber to a tiebreak.  I know Raonic is green and Berdych is a shadow if his 2010 self, but those are still good wins.  Not only that, but Soderling's power game really does work better on slower surfaces.  I honestly can't truly see a clear winner one way or the other here, but I do have to lean toward Soderling simply on the basis of history/ranking.

Re: Hewitt, I'll be very happy if he wins. smile

Re: Blake, HE CAN WIN!  HE CAN DO IT!  HE COULD EVEN UPSET DJOKOVIC IN THE 3RD ROUND!  No.  No he can't.  He can't do any of that.  *sigh*
Still, I'll be rooting for him.

-Arvis

  • Don
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Re: First Round matches to watch?

But has Petzschner recovered from his back injury???

Also, yes, Mahut will again have trouble breaking Isner.  Trouble is, Isner will also have trouble breaking Mahut IMO.

Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 17, 2011 4:15pm)

  • Don
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Re: First Round matches to watch?

Some matches that could be interesting:
Nadal/Russell.  Not a good first round match for Rafa.  Hopefully another routine win. 
Muller/Haas.  Both have played some beautiful grass court tennis in their day.  Haas far more of it, of course.
Fognini/Raonic.  It's hard to stay sane playing Fabio.  Should be fun.
Almagro/Niemenen could be fun, too.  Almagro is lost on grass but has game.  Niemenen will make him work.
Also, though we don't yet know who it is, qualifier/Davydenko.  I'll take the guy behind door #1, whoever he is.
Gulbis/Tursunov.  A bit of a who cares?  I'll go out on a limb and say the winner will beat the Melzer/Falla winner!

  • Aiur
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Re: First Round matches to watch?

Can't believe nobody mentioned Ljubicic vs Cilic. Cilic has steadily fallen from #9 to #27 in a span of 16 months. He has the ability to pickup a ton of points because he was bounced in the first round by Florian Mayer last year, but he has a tough test in Ljubicic. You know what you'll get from Ljubicic. Hard, flat serves and a one-handed backhand that isn't very flashy but still produces a bunch of winners. Should be an interesting match between the Croats. I would be shocked if it didn't go to at least four sets.

  • Don
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Re: First Round matches to watch?

Mainly because Ivan Ljubicic has lost in the first round 6 of the 10 times he's played Wimbledon, including the last two.  Lifetime at Wimbledon, Ivan is 6-10, having also lost twice in the second round and twice in the third.

Of course, Cilic is no great grass court player -- but at least he isn't allergic to the surface like Ivan seems to be.

  • Aiur
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Re: First Round matches to watch?

Ljubicic is a clay court guy, but still, if that serve is on it could be a decent match to watch. It piques my interest just a tad more than Nadal-Russell, Fognini-Raonic, Ward-Llodra of Blake-Baghdatis, but that's just me I guess.

  • Don
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Re: First Round matches to watch?

I guess.  Though honestly I agree with you about Blake/Bags and hopefully Rafa/Russell, too.

Which obviously means I'm more interested in Llodra/Ward and Raonic/Fognini than Cilic/Ljubicic.  By a bunch.

Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 17, 2011 11:25pm)

  • Arvis
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Re: First Round matches to watch?

Ljubi really SHOULD be better on grass, what with his serve.  The problem is he moves about as well as you would think he moves by looking at him.  He doesn't have the necessary foot speed for good grass court play.  His volleys are decent, though, so hopefully he uses them effectively.

But I agree that it could be an interesting match.  I didn't list it because I find Cilic unbearably boring to watch.  Watching him is the tennis equivalent of chewing cardboard: bland, unpleasant, and rather pointless.

-Arvis

  • Don
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Re: First Round matches to watch?

The bounce is higher at Wimbledon than it used to be, but it's still possible to play a slice and keep the ball low.  Ivan does not like low balls much and moves especially badly running forward.  Worst of all, he's lost so much for so long on grass that he appears to me to have no real belief.  Even when he was #3 in the world he couldn't buy a match on grass.

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Re: First Round matches to watch?

Those expecting a long 5-setter from Isner/Mahut, prepare to be disappointed. I have a feeling that Isner will win in 3 but Mahut will take the 3rd to a tie-break.

I'll be watching Llodra/Ward carefully.

  • Registered: Jan. 14, 2011
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Re: First Round matches to watch?

Ljubicic has a pretty poor record in majors overall. I wouldn't expect that to change especially at this stage of his career. Isner/Mahut is not going to be as exciting as it is getting hyped up to be. I would love to see a Verdasco rebound this tournament. Unfortunately, that is not going to be the easiest task with his first round opponent.

Last edited by the_lost_scot (Jun. 20, 2011 5:53pm)

  • Don
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Re: First Round matches to watch?

Ivan Ljubicic's record in majors:
RG 18-12
Australian 13-12
US Open 8-11
Wimbledon 6-10

Obviously, he's best on clay -- and the faster the surface is, the worse he performs.

BUT maybe Aiur was onto something.  I honestly don't know how, given Ivan's hatred of grass. 

Ivan is now up 2 sets to 1 and a break in the 4th over Cilic, serving for the match!  Now, I know Cilic isn't all that much, but this would be a huge win for Ljubicic, who is a great guy.  I'm happy for him.

Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 21, 2011 9:59am)

  • Arvis
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Re: First Round matches to watch?

Arvis wrote:

Stepanek v. Verdasco: Both of these guys have played well in their grass court warm-up events.  This one should go the distance.  A coin-flip says Verdasco will win it.

Nailed it! big_smile

I also sort of got the Karlovic one... just didn't expect Tipsy to retire with injury.

-Arvis

  • Don
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Re: First Round matches to watch?

Nice call.  Your boy Blake was down two sets and a break to Bags and came back to win the set in a tiebreaker.  Now he's up a break in the 4th.  Nice job hanging in there, James!

Hewitt blistered Nishikori 6-1 in the first set, converting 3 of 6  break points.  Nishikori had no break points. 

However, Nishikori broke Hewitt in the second set and was serving 5-4 (40-15) when Rusty ran off 4 consecutive points to even the set, which went to a tiebreak Hewitt won 7-4.

Blake won the 4th set and went up a break in the 5th before losing to Bags 6-4 in the 5th.  It was a good match for James, even if he couldn't pull out a win.

Also, clearly Petzschner's back must be OK because he's giving Soderling fits.

Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 21, 2011 12:22pm)

  • Don
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Re: First Round matches to watch?

I know that no one has mentioned any women's matches in this thread, but I thought I'd point out that Sam Stosur may well be the first high seed to fall in this Wimbledon.

28-year old Melinda Czink, who is #262 in the world and whose career Wimbledon record is 1-6, was up a set and two breaks on Stosur at 6-3, 4-1.  Stosur got one of those breaks back.  Czink is serving at 4-3.  If she can hold her nerve, this will be an enormous upset.

WOW!  She did it 6-3, 6-4.  Stosur was bundled out in round one by a 28-year-old unknown!

Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 21, 2011 1:19pm)

  • Arvis
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Re: First Round matches to watch?

Wow, #262?  Man!  Stosur and JJ both out.  Two great examples of everything that's wrong with women's tennis.

So far, all the matches I pointed out have not disappointed!  Even the Nishikori Hewitt match has turned out to be quite competitive!  So far the only sort-of dud is Soderling-Petzschner, simply because the match is pretty boring, even though it's been competitive.  Ward-Llodra will look routine just looking at the scoreline but the tennis has allegedly been quite good.

-Arvis

  • Registered: Jan. 14, 2011
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Re: First Round matches to watch?

Tipsy was injured during the final of his grass court tuneup. Not a huge surprise to see this end that way for him.