Can anyone outside the Big 4 win? (Page 1 of 2)

I don't see it being anyone outside the top 3. 

Obviously, I hope it's Rafa.  5 of the last 6 sounds good to me.  He's won the last two Wimbledons he played!

Equally obviously Murray has an outside chance.  Aiur took Andy as his early pick and I'm sure Andy will have other supporters here as well, but I tend to agree with you, Tono, that the pressure of the British press makes it too hard for him at Wimbledon.  Andy has, of course, managed to get to three slam finals, but all of those are on hard courts and I don't see that changing soon.  We'll see.   

Roddick has no prayer unless he suddenly becomes MUCH more aggressive, which I doubt we'll see.  Neither Berdych nor Soderling has been in good enough form in recent months to challenge IMO, but of course there's some chance that could change. 

Seems to me that Fish or Gasquet -- or maybe even Isner -- could make a deep run, but I don't see them winning.

Anybody?  Who are we missing here?

Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 16, 2011 12:30pm)

Blah.  I am still rooting for Roddick.  But yeah, Roger or Rafa will be the winner.  99% guaranteed.

How about a crazy run by Milos Raonic, eh? (<-- see wut I did thar?)
He has some weapons.  But it does seem like maybe his forehand has cooled off a bit since clay started.  You think this kid will ever be the real deal?  Grass is his best chance to really do some damage.

-Arvis

Well, the only reason I brought Raonic up is because he went pretty deep at the Australian.  Didn't he make the quarters?  It seems like he could be set up for a similar run here.  But I still need to look at the draw.

-Arvis

Gilles Muller vs. Milos Raonic should be a snoozefest.  "Ah, another ace........ oh, a service winner..... OMG A RALLY oh wait, error, it's over after three hits."

I know Nadal hates playing big servers, and grass is the scariest, but I don't see Nadal losing before the finals.  In my draw I have him powering through (in order) Russel, Sweeting, Raonic, Simon, Kohlschreiber, and Roddick to make the finals.  MAYBE Raonic can give him some trouble, and Roddick will HOPEFULLY put up a fight, but I think it's unlikely that they'll play well enough over 3 sets to actually topple El Matador.

-Arvis

I don't see it happening. Until del Po is 100%, I can't see anyone winning other than the Big 4.

Berdych is going to have a very tough R16 match if he gets that far.   Fish, Kohlschreiber or Verdasco.  And he's off form badly this year.

Soderling does have a tough draw.  He's in trouble if the wind comes up.  It's his greatest vulnerability IMO.

Djokovic has yet to prove himself on grass, to me at least.  I think his match up with Soderling or whoever comes out of that part of the draw will be interesting.

Ferrer/Tsonga is one I'm looking forward to in R16.

Every year (for awhile) if Delpo is healthy, in shape and confident, he'll be a threat to win the US Open IMO.

Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 17, 2011 9:34pm)

Nole is on my team, too.  I don't see how you can leave out any of the top 4, really.  Murray has a shot at Rafa if both get that far.  Djokovic has a shot at Federer if both get that far. 

The question in picking a men's team is who are the other 4, seems to me.

Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 17, 2011 9:52pm)

To be honest, for me, my men's team picked itself.  I didn't spend 15 minutes on it.  Only one decision to make in the whole deal, and that was between only two unseeded players!  (I did change that pick once.)  I suspect many people will have the exact same men's team I have.  It will come down to match picks and picking the right finalists/winner, probably. 

Women's team was much the same.  I premised my entire women's team on the failure of Victoria Azarenka to make the quarters!!!  Strange, I know.  Once I was there, however, my team picked itself.  I had utterly no choice whatsoever about any of my picks.  Or so it seemed to me at the time!   ;-D

(Actually, I made one change on my women's team, too.  Dropped Woz, picked up Petko.  Arvis is a sly one and I think he's onto something.  Actually, it fits in better with my no Azarenka scenario, too!)

Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 17, 2011 10:32pm)

The top half of that quarter is straight up weak, Tono.  Frankly, if Petko beats lovely old Greta Arn in the first round, she has a stroll to the quarters.  Then, if I'm right about Azarenka losing, she's the favorite against whoever emerges from the bottom half of the quarter.  And since my whole team is based on Azarenka losing...

Woz will probably win her quarter, too, but is definitely not the favorite against Sharapova IMO.  Hence the move, dude!   ;-D

Hey, Tono, is it true, what I heard?  You're starting a joint Petra and Petko fan club and calling it Pet Nuts?

Is that REALLY true?   ;-D

Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 17, 2011 10:58pm)

For me, at least, a good shot at an unseeded player in the 4th round (and 32 bonus points) -- even with a testy first round match -- outweighed a "sure thing" two wins and a loss by a different unseeded player.  Clearly we need not identify of whom we speak; to the cognoscente it's too obvious.  It's a gamble, but I'm in it to try to win it.

Anyway, I had only two visions when I consulted the oracle on the women's tournament.  One was Serena Williams lifting the Venus Rosewater Dish yet again and the other was Vika Azarenka melting down.