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When I picked my men's team after looking at the draw, I found it easy. It picked itself, really. The only question in my mind about who to take was the unseeded player. I thought the other seven choices were painfully obvious.
The women's team was an entirely different story, however. That was as difficult as the men's was simple. I spent all afternoon on it.
I also find the men's side to be easier to select than the women's. I feel more confident in my men's picks, although sometimes I do better on the women's side even though I know less. Go figure.
Now that I understand how the game works, I think I made wiser choices this time than at RG.
For instance, I doubt that I will lose anybody in the first round, though anything's possible. It happened to 5 of my players at RG! Part of that was due to some injuries I didn't know about. I don't think I have chosen any injured players this time.
I think both my unseeded players will definitely win their first match. Both have a decent chance to make the 3rd round, especially the woman. I think my two seeds below 16 on both sides have a very good shot at making R16, at least 50/50.
So I'm optimistic about this. I think I'm going to do well.
Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 18, 2010 8:54pm)
I took Petzschner as my unseeded player. He has some tough names in his first couple of matches, but they are mostly clay court guys and he excels on grass. It was basically a tossup between him, Andreas Beck, GGL and Dolgopolov.
I never spend a lot of time on the women's draw. It just gets confusing and frustrating. I spent like two minutes picking the seeds and five minutes to come up with the unseeded player (eventually settled on Dulko).
Petzschner, eh? Interesting choice. Karol Beck is no pushover. Don't know what I think about his chances against Monfils. I suppose that depends upon which Monfils shows up.
Other possibilities are the ones you mentioned and...
Andreev (who has Brands, which is a drag, and then Davydenko -- miserable on grass, though not as bad as he used to be -- and then maybe Hanescu, in what is beyond question the soft part of the draw, but Andreev has been out with an injury)
Troicki (who has Kunitsyn, which is a drag, and then Melzer who is tough on grass, and then probably Feliciano Lopez, also good on grass, but Troicki might come through those players)
Berrer (who has Marchenko, which is nice, and then Gilles Simon, also perhaps within reach, but then Murray)
Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 18, 2010 9:29pm)
As to Dulko, that's not a bad choice. Easy first round, then plays her doubles partner. On grass, she and Flavia are probably pretty even. Not the way I went, but a very solid pick.
Andreas Beck is very, very tempting. First Jamie Baker, a virtual walkover. Then Benneteau. Nice. Then Verdasco. Well, that would be tough, but on grass I suppose he has a shot.
In fact, probably his best shot on any surface.
Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 18, 2010 8:02pm)
As far as unseeded players go, what about Taylor Dent (who is good on grass) or Xavier Malisse (who has had good grass results lately)?
Dent has Chela in the first round and probably would be favored, but if he wins, he gets Djokovic in the second round. In that match he would have no chance whatsoever IMHO.
Malisse's draw is much worse. He gets Ferrero in the first round. Ferrero has made the quarters at Wimbledon two of the last three years.
Because you LOSE 16 points if one of your players loses in the first round -- so that the first round is essentially worth twice as much as any other early round -- I definitely want all my players to be huge first round favorites.
Because you get an extra 8 points if your unseeded player makes the third round, I want my unseeded player to have a good shot to win his second round as well.
For those reasons, I don't like Dent and like Malisse even less, though beyond a doubt both are pretty good grass court players.
Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 20, 2010 6:25pm)
I agree -- it's all about that first round win for the unseeded player. Looking at the draw for all of this is vital.
Well, both Dent and Malisse have passed their opening rounds. Malisse, especially, is in good position. (By the way, Jon Wertheim, tennis writer for Sports Illustrated, called this upset.) If Malisse can get past the qualifier, De Voest, I think he will have a chance against Querrey.
Nice win for Malisse. Still, it would have been a very risky move to take him against Ferrero. Now he has an easy match before (very probably) losing to Querrey.
Dent will lose in the second round for sure, like I said before.
As it turned out, the best choice for an unseeded player was Fish. Frankly, I'm surprised -- because I thought he would lose to Cilic in the second round. However, Florian Mayer upset Cilic. It's the only R16 spot we know for sure will be occupied by an unseeded player. IF Fish can get past Mayer, his next opponent should be easier. I didn't take him but a fair number of people did.
Now that we have the benefit of hindsight, looks like the best pick for an unseeded player was Florian Mayer. I bet nobody would have picked him, even if he had not drawn Cilic in the first round. The unpredictability of some of these results is what makes this fun and challenging.
Actually, right now, the best pick for an unseeded player would have been Daniel Brands (100) of Germany who impressively beat Igor Andreev, Nikolay Davydenko, and Victor Hanescu to reach the fourth round! He next meets your man, Thomas Berdych. Yen-Hsun Lu (82) has also played well beating Horacio Zeballos, Michal Przysiezny, and Florian Mayer, and has reached the fourth round to meet Andy Roddick next. So far, these were the best picks. I imagine some few may have picked Lu (he gave Federer a good first round match at Wimbledon last year or the year before that ... when Federer hit a great round the post shot), but probably not many picked him.
Of course, there are some other unseeded players still in the draw as well. Xavier Malisse and Andreas Seppi are still awaiting their third round matches. I was tempted to go with Malisse (even with his 1st round Ferrero matchup), but decided to go with Petzschner (especially after he got out of the Monfils section) ... and he hasn't let me down. I don't suspect he will pose any problems to Nadal though, but hey ... he has served his purpose 
I'm sure people who have picked Lleyton Hewitt are rejoicing right now. I saw one person who even picked Hewitt to win the whole thing!! Well, he's past his first hurdle in Monfils (and surprisingly in straight sets!). It will be very interesting seeing his fourth round match with Djokovic.
Unfortunately, my man, John Isner, had to play a marathon, and tarnish my perfect record in the third round. Oh well, it was historic for sure, and I'm glad for him that he had such a great experience and will forever be remembered for such an extraordinary achievement. This experience might even help him reach his goal of breaking through to the top 10 as he draws confidence from his physical and mental stamina.
Right about Brands and Lu. They made the 4th round. Amazing! So amazing, in fact, that I'm astonished you think anyone here took Lu, Cam. Actually, no one took either of them. Pre-tourney they were laughable choices: only their mothers would have picked them.
Seppi lost in the second round to Tobias Kamke (who?). Kamke is alive and plays Tsonga. Go Kamke!
Jeremy Chardy is unseeded and still alive. He plays Ferrer, against whom he has an outside chance, I suppose. Two people with good men's teams actually DID take Chardy. Go Ferrer!!!
Of course, Petzschner will lose to Nadal unless a miracle befalls him. Like you, Cam, I took Petzschner, and as you say, he served his purpose.
Malisse is in with a shot against Querrey, though Querrey did just beat him in straights at Queen's Club. No one took Malisse, of course, because he had Ferrero first round. Ferrero was a quarterfinalist here two of the last three years. Malisse was far too dangerous a pick with a -16 penalty for first round losses.
Fabio Fognini is still alive. He plays Benneteau and certainly has a chance, but no one expected him to beat Verdasco in the first round.
The other unseeded players left are De Bakker and Mathieu, who play each other. Clearly, one of them will win. I suspect it will be De Bakker, but I hope I'm wrong. Before the draw, I jokingly suggested De Bakker as a dark horse. I hope I'm not the reason that several people picked him. GO MATHIEU!!!
Hewitt is a top 16 seed who will prove a good choice ONLY if he beats Djokovic next round to make the quarters. A number of people who are in the hunt took Hewitt, and a number of others took the Djoker. One of those groups is wrong. Since Nole has pretty much owned Rusty, I suspect he will turn out to be the better pick. We'll see. In any event, I'm glad I took Berdych instead of either of them, as he has Brands next round and Djokovic and Hewitt have each other.
I hope your boy Isner didn't suffer any serious damage from that marathon. At 250 pounds, no wonder he had no skin on any of his toes when he faced De Bakker this morning. His toes will heal. Hopefully, the neck issue will resolve soon, too. You have to admire the guy. Both he and Mahut are heroic figures -- in my opinion, especially Mahut. If Isner gets healthy, he has a real shot at the top 10 with the hard court season on the horizon.
Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 26, 2010 12:15am)
Good to see PHM playing well again.
Mathieu has had the year from hell until this tournament. It's good to see him playing like himself again for sure.
I'm concerned for Nadal going forward. He has not looked sharp at all, and now we are starting with the injuries again. I think Soderling might beat him down in straights, assuming he can get by PHM.
Neither Rafa nor Federer has played their best so far, but they keep moving forward. I expect both of them to play better in the second week, but it is uncertain whether either of them will make the final. Fed has to face Berdych and then Roddick or Djokovic or Hewitt. Rafa will have Soderling and then either Murray or Tsonga. Tough. Still, there's a reason they're 1-2, so maybe they'll make it. I hope so. But either or both could lose in the quarters or semis.
I think the match with Mathieu will be easier for Rafa, and maybe give him a chance to recuperate a little bit. Of course, any physical problem is a concern, but neither of the problems for which Rafa got treatment seemed too serious at this point. God willing, it will get better, not worse.
As much as it pains me to say it, Roger is definitely starting to lose it. Guys he would handle easily a couple years ago now routinely take him to 3 or 5 sets or even beat him. He certainly is still capable of winning 'Slams as evidence in Australia, but it seems to me that he can't keep his focus anymore. He certainly has the game to win many more 'Slams, but his brain just lets him down. Something you wouldn't expect to see from a 16-time 'Slam Champion.
I think he could hit a major tailspin in the next couple months and could very well end up ranked #4 after the US Open.
No doubt Fed has declined immensely in recent months. I think you're right that a large part of the reason is to be found between his ears. But there's another factor, too, that I think is even bigger and may even be the cause of his mental weakness: his balance and movement.
Used to be, Fed glided around the court VERY quickly, was always in position with lots of tiny little steps, and was always on balance. Now as often as not he's out of position, his balance is wrong, and he falls off his forehand. I have NO IDEA why this has happened, but you could see it in every match he played at RG and again at Wimbledon. His movement and balance are no longer a big advantage for him; they have become his greatest weakness by far in my estimation.
If he does not correct these problems -- and I don't know how he's going to do that -- then he is going to be routinely beaten by players like Soderling and Berdych as well as Nadal. If Djokovic and Murray continue their resurgence, they will dominate him, too. So will Del Potro if he comes back strong from his injury. If this continues, I am afraid that by the end of 2011 Federer will be fighting it out with Verdasco for the top spot among the second tier of players.
So the truth comes out. Fed is suffering from back and right leg problems. I never suspected it because he's never injured. He kept mum about it and was wise to do so. We may be extremely premature in proclaiming his fall from the top of the game. If his movement and balance return to normal, he'll be back where he was in no time. What we now know for sure is that without those things, he's a very vulnerable player.
And I must say I TOLD YOU SO. Rafa beat Soderling like a bad dog. The real #1 player is playing like -- well, the real #1 player! He will win Wimbledon for the second time. No one but Fed has beaten Rafa at Wimbledon since 2005 and no one is going to beat him this year either. GO NADAL!!!
Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 30, 2010 12:19pm)
I'm very impressed with Nadal's play today. I thought Soderling would win but Nadal played amazing tennis and kept his focus. If he keeps this amazing play up then he will win the whole thing.
And I totally agree with you about Federer. Before the Fed era it was common for top players to lose in the QF or SF a few times and then win the next slam. No one expected Sampres to get to the finals of every tournament, and he might have a few bad tournaments and then kick ass and win one. Fed will heal and feel better and will win at least one more slam before he is done.
You're right about Fed having changed expectations. When you make 23 straight Slam semis, and the finals of almost all of those, everybody expects you to make the finals of EVERY Slam. That's just absurd on its face.
Before Fed, if anyone had expressed such expectations -- about any player in history at the time of his ascendancy -- everybody would have said that person was insane or on drugs. That's the extent to which Fed's incredible consistency has changed the way we think, and it's astonishing.
IF Fed recovers completely (and I hope he does), he'll win more than one more Slam, I think. At least three more would be my guess, and another five wouldn't surprise me at all.
In my opinion, the only thing that can keep Rafa from winning Wimbledon this year would be a recurrence of his injuries. God willing, that won't happen.
I was also worried once Soderling won the first set that Nadal would lose, but Nadal stepped it up big time. Nadal seemed very confident in his serving, and I think it helped him get an edge in the match. To me, I think Soderling has to learn to find a different game plan when things aren't working, and remain mentally tough and focused. This is easier said than done, but I think until that happens, he won't win a grand slam.
I do hope Federer recuperates in time for the U.S. Open. I think he still has a lot of great tennis in him yet, and I would venture to say that he has more than just one more grand slam left in him. But the field is certainly starting to open up on the men's side.
Now that we have reached the men's semifinal stage, who do you all think will progress to the final and win it? I have been impressed with Djokovic's form of late (and he has finished his last two matches with screaming winners), and I think he will be able to get past Berdych (though perhaps in 4 or even 5 sets). Based on recent form, I think Murray has been more impressive than Nadal, though Nadal has had to face more difficult opposition. It's a tough one to call, but I think the momentum is going with Murray ... I think it is his time (at least to reach the final). In Australia, Murray played incredibly well and was well on his way to beating Nadal before Rafa retired. I think we will be in for a special treat come Friday in that match. From there, if Murray and Djokovic reach the final ... it's anybody's match. Exciting stuff!!
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