• Aiur
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Topic: 2010 Men's Tournament

Should be interesting because I think Fed might get a lucky break with Novak being in his SF as opposed to Murray. I think he might also get Soderling instead of Roddick due to Davydenko coming back, but not 100% on that. If it shakes out like that, I will give Fed a better chance than Nadal because the grass evens the gap between Nadal and the rest of the field more than any other surface to me, and Murray or Roddick could beat him. Should be an interesting tournament as always.

  • Don
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Re: 2010 Men's Tournament

There is no way to know whether Djokovic will be in Federer's or Nadal's half of the draw until the draw is made.  There is a 50/50 chance he will be in Federer's half.  I just visited the Wimbledon website and clicked on draw.  It took me to last year's draw, so I conclude that, as usual, the draw has not been made this early.  That's how I know it's 50/50. 

Unless, that is, Wimbledon -- for the first time in history -- quits having a draw and starts assigning positions in the draw to players this year.  But then they'd have to quit calling it a "draw" and start calling it a "bracket" eh?

Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 9, 2010 5:14pm)

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Re: 2010 Men's Tournament

The draw's are usually released the Friday before the tournament starts, so we have a while before we know any of this. I'm pulling for Federer to win another, but I have a feeling that it will be a tough road for him given the number of talented players.

  • Don
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Re: 2010 Men's Tournament

The field is deep to be sure.  Lots of contenders on grass, Federer and Nadal chief among them, of course. 

Even though the grass is slower and more uniform than in the past, it still favors the big serve.  As big and strong as the players are getting, that's a lot of guys.  There will be some interesting dark horses.

Once the draw comes out, I will be trying hard to figure out who they might be.    ;-D

  • Don
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Re: 2010 Men's Tournament

I was just spinning down through the top 16 seeds as of this moment -- thinking about the other 3 to take besides the obvious -- seeing who I could eliminate.  Davydenko's just back and to say grass is his worst surface would be like saying Rafa Nadal can play pretty good clay court tennis.  David Ferrer won't contend for the title, though he may well make R16, depending on the draw.  Youzhny, Ljubicic (big serve notwithstanding) and Ferrero, not so much.  Melzer maybe.

So choose three: Djokovic, Murray, Soderling, Roddick, Verdasco, Tsonga, Cilic and Berdych.  AAAUUUGGGHHH!!!

That slate's so strong it almost makes you question including Rafa.  Just kidding.

Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 9, 2010 5:42pm)

  • Aiur
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Re: 2010 Men's Tournament

DonDenman wrote:

There is no way to know whether Djokovic will be in Federer's or Nadal's half of the draw until the draw is made.  There is a 50/50 chance he will be in Federer's half.  I just visited the Wimbledon website and clicked on draw.  It took me to last year's draw, so I conclude that, as usual, the draw has not been made this early.  That's how I know it's 50/50. 

Unless, that is, Wimbledon -- for the first time in history -- quits having a draw and starts assigning positions in the draw to players this year.  But then they'd have to quit calling it a "draw" and start calling it a "bracket" eh?

I know Wimbledon likes to reseed, but they usually leave the top 10 alone. I don't see them putting Fed ahead of Nadal or Murray ahead of Djokovic, which would mean a Fed-Djokovic semi and a Nadal-Murray semi.

Last edited by Aiur (Jun. 9, 2010 9:30pm)

  • Don
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Re: 2010 Men's Tournament

No, it would not. 

It's not 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3.  It's 1 vs. whichever of 3 or 4 gets drawn.  THAT'S WHY IT'S A DRAW, NOT A BRACKET!!!  This is Grand Slam tennis, not March Madness.

You need to get a handle on this.  You're too knowledgeable otherwise to be making this sort of rookie mistake.

For instance, last year Federer (#2 seed) and Djokovic (#4) were in the same half.  Wake up & smell the coffee, bro!

Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 11, 2010 2:28pm)

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Re: 2010 Men's Tournament

Lol - it's an honest mistake Don - these things are a bit mysterious.

  • Don
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Re: 2010 Men's Tournament

Yeah, true that.  Mystery abounds.

Aiur has only been a tennis fan for a little less than a decade and has become quite an astute observer in that short span of time, so he definitely deserves a little slack.

  • Aiur
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Re: 2010 Men's Tournament

I grew up watching baseball, college basketball, football and hockey. I didn't even know what tennis was until I saw Wimbledon highlights on ESPN one year (I think it was in '99 when Sampras beat Agassi). The first ever tennis match I watched was 2001 Wimbledon when Federer beat Sampras. Since then I've been a huge Federer and tennis fan overall.

  • Don
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Re: 2010 Men's Tournament

Can you imagine how many slams Roger would have won -- and how universally he would be proclaimed the greatest in any sport, ever -- if there had been no Rafa Nadal?

So far, you can add 4 or 5 French and 1 Wimbledon.  Hmmmm.  That would be another dimension altogether.

  • Aiur
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Re: 2010 Men's Tournament

Looking at the draws, it's like a complete 180 from Roland Garros. Looking at Fed's section, I think the only person who can challenge him is Berdych. His semi would most likely be Roddick or Djokovic, and neither guy has been playing particularly well.

On the other hand Nadal has Isner and Soderling in his section, with lesser threats IMO coming from Gulbis, Ferrer and Baghdatis. His semi will probably be Murray, and although Murray hasn't looked good for awhile, I think he'll have a good tournament.

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Re: 2010 Men's Tournament

Between Roddick and Djokovic I think that on any given day one of them could raise their game to become a threat. Roddick played in that amazing final, but that was a very tough loss and I think it will distract him in future matches against Fed. If Djokovic can stay focused I think he has a very good chance to get to the final's this year.

I'm almost certain that Nadal will not get to the finals. Soderling and Murray are tough, and Tsonga has the skills to pull out a win as well. Nadal was great at the French, but I just don;t think that he has the grass skills to get to the finals this year.

  • Don
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Re: 2010 Men's Tournament

Yet the last three times Rafa has played Wimbledon he has made the finals, Charles.

Won it in '08, lost to Federer in the finals in '06 & '07.  Nobody but Federer has beat Nadal at Wimbledon since 2005.  And he doesn't have the grass skills to get to the final???  He's so much worse on grass all of a sudden?
I don't think so.

And Djokovic has a good chance to beat Federer in the semis if he gets past Roddick in the quarters??? 
I don't think so.

Surprise!  It will be another Federer/Nadal final this year.  You heard it here first.

I don't like Soderling's chances against Nadal in the quarters at all. 

Tsonga has Kendrick, Dolgopolov (who's hot), then a tough match against either Almagro or Garcia-Lopez, then Verdasco, all just to get to Murray, who has a cakewalk by comparison.  No Tsonga in the semis, I predict. I think he'll go out by R16 at the latest.

Last edited by DonDenman (Jun. 18, 2010 5:37pm)

  • Aiur
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Re: 2010 Men's Tournament

Soderling took Nadal to 5 last time they played at Wimbledon in that infamous match that took like 5 days to finish. That was when Soderling's game was all over the place and he could only compete indoors. I definitely give him a nice chance against Rafa, especially if the conditions are cool and cloudy. I have Nadal in the finals again (surprise, surprise) but I would give Soderling a 30 or 40 percent chance of beating Nadal, which is more than I would give anybody (besides maybe Roddick, Murray and Fed).

  • Don
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Re: 2010 Men's Tournament

I will be surprised if Soderling can win more than one set from Rafa, though of course Robin does have the capacity to just take over a match completely. 

Still, I think Isner may be even scarier on grass, though of course he doesn't have Soderling's ground game -- or anything even vaguely in the neighborhood, for that matter.  How you gonna break that serve on grass, though?  Tough duty. 

I like Nadal to come through anyway.